Monday, July 27, 2009

Week 17

I show little change from last week in both corn and soybeans. I continue to show both the corrected and uncorrected results although I've been having some discussion about deleting the uncorrected results, at least from the summary presentation. To reiterate, the uncorrected model shows what the yield with be if we finish the year with current conditions. Of course conditions change and more often than not they decline, and so a crude correction can be applied to predict the final yield based both on current conditions and the 'average' decline. In some years this decline never comes, or is at least lest pronounced. These two estimates will of course converge as we approach late September. Please leave your comments

In late June the corrected model showed record corn yields (compared to 2000-2007) for IA, MT, NE, OH and WI. Conditions have slipped for some states and while I still show record yields for IA, MT and OH, only Ohio is more than a slight improvement on the record. The current corn yield estimate for Ohio is 169.6 bu/ac which is over a 6% improvement from the record yield of 159 bu/ac from 2006. This seems like quite a jump, and could be an issue given the variability in Ohio corn yields over the 2000-2007 period.

Recent talk I've heard would put me on the low side of soybean yields and I've yet to hear much about cotton yields to date. Any comments can be made anonymously, so let me know what your thoughts on this year's estimates. Download the spreadsheet you normally get by email at the link below.

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