Tuesday, July 28, 2009

O.A. Cleveland sees 12.5 million bale cotton crop

weblink to article -> Analysts see 12.5 million bale cotton crop

Dr. Cleveland at Mississippi State puts the cotton crop at about 12.5 million bales, a good 0.75 million bales below my current estimate. Now my cotton model has not proven to be nearly as accurate over the last several years as the corn and soybean model, and when someone of Dr. Cleveland's stature wades in it is definitely worth a look.

O.A. Cleveland gives the following crop estimates

AR 1.1 million bales
MO 0.637 million bales
GA 1.6 million bales
NC 0.600 million bales
US 12.5 million bales

For week 17 my comparative yields in the corrected model are
(see my Week 17 post below to download the full spreadsheet)
AR 1.0 million bales
MO 0.599 million bales
GA 1.656 million bales
NC 0.631 million bales
US 13.35 million bales

So those are fairly close, the unknown is of course always Texas. Another heavy hitter, Dr. Anderson out of Texas A&M adds that he currently expects abandonment in Texas to be about 27%. Currently I'm just over 24%. A larger abandonment number would of course bring the two estimates together.


  1. I like the new blog. It’s parsimonious…simple, yet informative. Now let’s see if your data predictions are correct :-)

  2. Fair point. As a historical reference, I'll try to put up some graphs and discussion on historical performance over the next few weeks.