Monday, July 20, 2009

Week 16

We will see continued convergence between the uncorrected and corrected models through mid/end of September. So conditions changed little in corn, but because it was another week closer to harvest, the needed correction declines, giving us some increase in yield and production. I don't think I'm alone in showing above trend yields in corn. I might be moving up above consensus, but I've seen reports higher than my corrected estimate.

For beans, I suspect I'm on the low side of consensus. The biggest change this week was in cotton where improving conditions increased both yield and harvesting rates which are running at 87.5% harvesting rate in the corrected model. The average of the lst 10 years for the US is 89.4% with a high of 96.9% in 2005 and a low of 81.6% last year. So at the moment, I'm below average harvest rates.

The key to this is abandonment in Texas which as fluctuated from 4% to 40% abandonment over the last 11 years. Right now I'm at just over 20% abandonment in the state.

Week 16 Spreadsheet (3mb)

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