Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Week 26

What happened to week 25? Well I got caught up on some of my work tasks and fell behind. I'll be updating next week before the October 8th crop production report. I'll try to get the estimates out Monday afternoon and then later in the week add the trade estimates 'pre-USDA report'. I can see where generally my blog traffic comes from and I think the phrase in the content industry is that I have a dedicated (euphemism for modest sized) following.

I've heard talk of lowered corn yields and the condition information shows a continued decline in yield and production. The condition information starts to be colored by the actual harvest data as we approach the October report so we can see some volatility in the condition numbers even in these last few weeks. Currrent information suggests a downward revision in corn yields.

For soybeans I'm stable while the USDA continues to increase yields. This type of movement is often consistent with me simply being 'off'. I'm not expecting a big change in the USDA numbers but we will see.

For cotton yield and production have been on a steady decline for several weeks. I've done a much better job in cotton than in previous years. As some of you may know this crop was a primary motivation for me to revive and seriously overhaul the model by John Kruse. I'm not yet ready to declare victory, but I'll say early results were quite excellent, particularly in relation to the rest of the trade. Look forward to a few more updates next week before the October Report.

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