Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Week 24 with USDA comparison

Let me start out by saying that I had a few conversations with people this week about my blog. I feel it important to note that while I am an agricultural economist, and I think the projections have been successful, I don't claim to be a professional. This was always an effort to show I could often beat the majority of trade estimates across all three crops early in the season while dedicating less than 1/2 hour a week to the task, including updating this blog. I hope you have all enjoy this but it is a hobby and isn't endorsed by anyone. Even I might distance myself from my soybean estimate this year.

I think I've tracked corn yields well this year. I'm higher than USDA on production and if I simply corrected the equation for harvesting rate in MN I'd be right on top of USDA for production as well. I tend not to make any adjustments to the equations at all but this one is a basic error and I may this week go back and adjust it.

For soybeans, I continue to lag USDA estimates. I think if you open the spreadsheet you can determine which states I'm the farthest from the USDA estimate.

For cotton I'm not on the low side of USDA but we will see where they end the year.

Harvest is underway so there are only a few weeks of conditions left. After October, USDA estimates normally change very little to the final estimate, so in October I can make a pretty good guess as to how accurate I may have been this year.

No comments:

Post a Comment