Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Week23 UPDATE!

Someone was kind enough to provide the individual trade estimates so I've updated the graphs and some of the discussion for this weeks estimates to include the latest trade estimates, see you again on Friday.
Only modest changes this week. Conditions in corn, soybeans and cotton have not changed substantially in the last few weeks. While I am mid-range of the trade for corn yields, I have a bit higher production numbers which could be in part due to some over estimation of harvesting rates in MN (see below). I'm not solidly in the bottom 1/3 of the trade range for soybean yields and production as I've held my estimates stable but the trade has moved upward. Oddly, I am now on the low end of trade in cotton, which is definitely not where I started the season relative to the trade.
For soybeans, if you look at the spreadsheet, you will note that in the corrected model, I'm slightly lower on yields, but I'm also lower in harvested area. I need to go back and check to see if I'm making some error in a state on harvesting rates, but it isn't immediately clear to me where this mistake might be. For instance, in corn, it is pretty clear that my harvesting rate for Minnesota is to high. There is a fairly stable silage acreage and I've specified an equation which gives me a harvesting rate which pushes silage acreage to low compared to historical volume. I will need to look through the state by state harvesting rates to see where I might be coming up short on harvesting percentages for soybeans.

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