Monday, August 3, 2009

Week 18 Production and Yield results

Modest changes from last week but as the season continues, the correction shrinks and the corrected model estimate rises. For soybeans, my current estimate of less than 43 bu/ac is at the lower end of the estimates I've been seeing. However, the existing record of 43 bu/ac occurred in 2005 under what would probably be considered excellent growing conditions. We have had a few years to improve yields since then. I'm running an Iowa soybean estimate of 52.3 bu/ac in the uncorrected model as well as 47.6 bu/ac in Illinois and 40.3 bu/ac in Missouri. Those are all respectable yields. My Indiana yield, at 44.4 bu/ac would show some weakness in the state. For Corn, there was some modest improvement in conditions. The uncorrected model gives a yield of 159.3 bu/ac while the corrected model result is 157.8 bu/ac. Once again, the uncorrected model gives the result if we finish the year with current conditions, while the corrected model takes account of the 'average' change in conditions. Given the adequate moisture this year across the corn belt, I think it is harder to make the case for a 'normal' decline. You can download the detailed spreadsheet at the link below. New Mexico has not reported conditions yet this week so results reflect carrying forward last week's conditions for cotton.

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