Monday, August 31, 2009

Week 22 crop size estimates

In this weeks estimates you will note that the corrected model is now above the uncorrected model. Now I've mentioned that from the begining of the season that conditions decline more often then they improve. The model is calibrated to the 25th week in my growing year (for the most part) and so they should be very close or exact for most states in that week. However, it appears that instead of a lowering of estimates to correct for condition changes, for some states over the next week or two there is a positive correction. This would suggest that conditions improve between now and week 25 on average. Perhaps this indicates a certain pesimism at this time of the year or simply an statistical discrepency, but it indicates that the estimates for this week would on average underestimate final production.

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