Monday, August 10, 2009

Week 19 production and yield results

The uncorrected model stands at 159.3 bushels an acre while the corrected comes in one bushel lower at 158.3. To reiterate the difference between the two models for anybody joining just, the uncorrected model is the estimate if we finish the year with current conditions while the corrected model takes into account the average decline we see in conditions throughout the season. That is to say conditions normally decline as we go through the year. However, although perhaps obvious, it is worth noting that in the really exceptional yields, conditions are flat and don't show this decline. These two models will converge as we approach mid-September and the adjustment shrinks quickly from this point. In the corrected model I'm predicting record yields in some minor states but also a record yield in Iowa of 182.9 bushels an acre. I think this is very plausible given growing conditions in the state, but I'm also predicting a record yield in Ohio at 172.7 bushels an acre, this would be a full 8% above the previous record and seems to be a stretch despite the reported crop conditions, if someone wants to give some anonymous feedback it would be most appreciated. I'm also carrying near records in Wisconsin and Nebraska. For production, I take the USDA planted acreage as given and I'm running just above a 92% harvesting rate nation wide. This gives me production numbers, but corrected and uncorrected that are at the high end or even above the range I've seen floated by industry. The USDA can of course resurvey area and I'll take those numbers into consideration, so while I'm comfortable with the yield, the production number can be adjusted by any change you feel that may be forthcoming from the USDA.

For soybeans the uncorrected yield of 42.7 bushels an acre and the corrected yield of 42.0 bushels an acre would put me in the thick of industry estimates as would my production numbers of just over 3.2 billion bushels. I

For cotton the only information I've seen to date has been comments by O.A. Cleveland and Carl Anderson which suggested I may be a bit high on yield and production but I've seen little else on the crop size estimates since then and I don't seem to be on the list for circulation of other folks models like I am for corn and soybeans, so if someone out there wants to share their results you can send me an email at . I'd be happy to see what other's thoughts are on the size of this years cotton crop.

No comments:

Post a Comment