Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Race to the bottom, Corn yield 146bu/ac Soybeans 39bu/ac and cotton holding at 18.8 million bales

Yet another week of big declines and a race to the bottom edge of the trade estimates I've seen recently although with each new release the trade moves further down. Remember, these are subjective data and, in my opinion, sometimes captures peoples ''feelings''. But make no mistake, in some places (locations in Illinois and Indiana for instance) things are clearly very bad. See a state by state comparison below to see the geographical effect of the drought.  (spreadsheets with all state numbers for corn, soybeans and cotton available on request). 

Corn Yield:  146.0 bu/ac
Corn Production:  12,789 million bushels

Soybean Yield:  39.0 bu/ac
Soybean Production: 2,920 million bushels

Cotton Yield:  800 lbs/ac
Cotton Production 18.886 million bales

We have had continual declines in yields in Illinois and Indiana but we are starting to see some declines in Iowa. While the corn still looks reasonably good back home (Eastern Iowa) but worries are mounting. If we look at the graphs by state below you can see that up until recently the model was holding Iowa corn and soybean yields pretty stable, they have begun to decline in the last couple of weeks as temperatures have risen and drought conditions expand. Should conditions improve or stabilize, the farmers in Iowa and Minnesota might have both a decent crop and benefit from the nice run up in crop prices. This will come at the expense of farmers in Illinois and Indiana. While it did rain in Champaign (IL) I don't get the impression that it was sufficient to change the story-line.  NOTE that I use Nebraska for corn and Missouri for beans in the state breakout graphs below, and again, spreadsheets available on request. 

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