Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Declines accelerating and spreading with drought impacts for corn

Corn Yield:  150.6 bu/ac
Corn Production:  13,255 million bushels

Soybean Yield:  40.2 bu/ac
Soybean Production: 3,010 million bushels

Greetings from Rome everyone:
It has apparently been more mild and cool here in Rome than has been experienced across the Mid-west this past week. I’ll set aside that apparently there was more snow accumulation in Rome than in Columbia MO this winter too!

The acreage report had little impact on corn production despite the increase in acres as the geographic shuffling of acres out of Iowa and into Illinois and Indiana where the drought was having the largest effect resulted in little production change. This week we see declines across the board, including Iowa, as the decline in yields and production gain speed. These are of course subjective measures and they tend to be influenced by short run events on occasion (cotton conditions and hurricanes is a good example*) so we will see how these numbers hold into next week. I will say that the effects appear to be spreading with a large decline in Iowa this week although still smaller than the declines in Illinois and Indiana again.

*I keep trying to find time to do additional commentary but as this is for my own entertainment, I’m limited in the amount of time I have. Remember, these are subjective data. A few years ago, when a hurricane came ashore, cotton conditions fell for two weeks then quickly rebounded. The short run extreme weather event colored folks perceptions of the crop. Now the drought is pretty severe so I’m not suggesting a jump back up next week, but it will be interesting to see if the declines continue so strongly in the next two reports.

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