Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Big declines in corn and soybean numbers

We saw significant declines in corn and soybean yields the last few weeks. For corn, my new number would be in the middle of the trade range but I have one observation from the trade this week that puts yields down at 150bu/ac, I'll have to adjust my graph axis! For soybeans I was well below the trade but very close to the USDA estimates. The only current trade estimate from this week is spot on with my results from this week. 

For cotton, well, the model simply blows Texas and it is clear that the situation there is not one we have seen in the last 27 years as there is nothing like it in the data. I don't like to mess with the model based on some arbitrary adjustment so I'm leaving it as is knowing I'm off track on that estimate. (clicking on the tables and graphs below will take you to an enlarged version).

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