Monday, August 1, 2011

SPREADSHEET Aug12011.xls

I'm at the upper end of the corn trade estimates for yield. This is the third week of declines and the corrected model declined another 0.5 bu/ac this week. Corn production is at 13.3 bb which is also probably at the higher end of trade estimates.

For soybeans I'm considerably lower than current USDA estimates. I'm over 2 bu/ac lower on yields and about 200 million bushels lower on production. I don't have trade estimate numbers for comparison.

For cotton, I'm fairly confident I'm simply 'wrong'. The model isn't able to handle the conditions in Texas where the harvesting rate may be below 50%.


  1. Seth -- Steve Meyer in Iowa here. Interesting work. I'm not familiar with your model, though. I presume it is based on weekly crop condition ratings by state and a trend variable of some sort. Any others? SRM

  2. I have some of this in the archive but here is some additional information. It also includes planting progress information (delayed planting reduces max potential yield) and it is based on planted area yields. This was important for cotton although this year it doesn't seem to be working. The parameters all represent the bushels/ac difference between an acre when compared to an acre which is very poor, so if the excellent parameter is 100, that means the difference between an very poor acre and a excellent acre is 100 bushels an acre.