Week 30

For a discussion of why I no longer am publishing a corrected soybean condition, see the posts that follow this one. Also check the poll on the right. I'm about done with updates for the year. Once 50% of the crop is harvested conditions are no longer reported. This is the latest I've gotten soybean conditions since the data started in 1986 (in my week breakouts) and corn conditions should also be ending soon. You can clearly see in the estimates that harvest issues and concerns about test weights (?) are having an effect on conditions and therefore yield and production.

The yield numbers for cotton have fallen substantially since the first part of September. You will see in earlier posts where I think my errors are coming from on the production side (TX and AR). The yields, however, have tracked USDA reasonably well and so if you fit the model changes to USDA points we might see some sizable reductions in the USDA cotton production numbers in August. I should note that New Mexico has not reported conditions yet for the week so I'm using last weeks conditions carried over. Given the small size of New Mexico and the likelyhood of large changes in thier conditions from one week, this is probably not having a noticable effect on the outcome. You will be hardpressed to see the change when they finally release thier numbers.

I'll continue to post as long as I have conditions and then again near the time of the USDA November report, maybe the December report for cotton and then after the January report where numbers are usually 'final' or at least change little from that point for production and yield. Again I'll solicit any comments you have concerning this blog.

Week 30 spreadsheet (3mb)