Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Week 14 WITH a June 30 acreage update

Now with acreage change!

I think it is a bit early to speak definitively about any of the results of the condition model. I haven't gone over state by state results in great detail to see if my re-estimated equations (without redoing the uncorrected/corrected model wedge) is having much of an effect on the results this year but I will say that the 'excessive' moisture in the mid-west seems to be reducing conditions (and model yields) in Iowa. With smaller declines across the northern corn belt. Pennsylvania seems to have had a significant decline this week but I've no information as to why.

Alternatively the rains last week in Texas seem to have boosted the estimate of cotton production by 200,000 bales up to 8.2 million bales in the uncorrected model.

I'll try to add a bit more commentary in the coming weeks, I've been spending my time looking at biofuel RIN markets and preparing for the mid-year baseline run for FAPRI.

Update with new acre numbers.

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