Thursday, July 8, 2010

I'm higher than the trade estimates in cotton

I'm outside the trade range for cotton, with predictions ranging from 17.0 to 17.9 million bales. If we take the best guess, the corrected model estimate, I'm at 18.3 million bales. In talking to some folks in the know, I'd guess I'm at least on the right side of that range. I may be high, but 17 million bales seems low to me at this point.
It is worth noting that I'm comparing my current corrected estimate to the USDA's report tomorrow, but the corrected model also includes some average decline in conditions. The problem is for cotton, that there is often not an 'average' decline, it can be bimodal in nature. Anyone want to comment anonymously about thier own thoughts on tomorrow's USDA report for cotton production?

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