Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Week 26 crop condition yield and production

I show a pretty noticeable decline in yields this week in corn and . When you look at the 18 states corn condition line, and compare it to last week you won't perceive much of a change. You only see one unit move from excellent to good. I'm unsure of how the aggregation is made to the 18 state number, if it is weighted in any way by area, but it appears to be a simple average (I'm wrong, see the more recent post, it is weighted by last years planted area and just happens to be close to a simple average this week). If you look at the individual states you can see that Iowa and Illinois shown more noticeable declines which are made up in some smaller states and thus estimating the national number with just the national line will produce different results than adding up the states. The soybean estimate appears to follow the same pattern here.

I've also added last months trade estimates to my graphics. I do not have trade estimates for cotton yields, only production. Cotton yields would be nice to have as I believe my production difference here is largely due to a difference in abandonment rates in Texas. If I use the USDA number, I am quite close to the USDA production numbers. The equation which estimates Texas abandonment has historically been problematic and the source of much of my historic error.

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