Week 18

Corn and soybeans estimates are converging as we would expect as we approach the end of September where the equations were estimated. So the corrected model shows a modest increase for corn yields while the uncorrected model shows a modest decline. Why? Because although conditions in aggregate may have slipped slightly this week, the decline was less than the historical average during this week and thus the corrected model, which is the best guess, shows a bit of improvement.

Just to clarify, if conditions NEVER changed through the year, the uncorrected line would be a flat line while the corrected model would rise to meet it.

The hot weather in cotton country shows up with a decline in both cotton yields and production. I always hesitate to take one week as a indicator of actual change, so this one will bear watching. If unfavorable temperatures continue, we should see a steady decline here. I'll be posting again on Monday of next week and then again after the USDA report on the 12th to see how close I am to USDA

Week18 Spreadsheet (xls 3mb)