Wednesday, September 12, 2012

A quick post before the report so I have the estimates recorded.

I know I'm way off on corn. I've talked about it since mid-July. I'll be most interested to see if the USDA reduced the harvesting rate in the report due on half an hour. I'll put an analysis of absolute vs percent deviations on the work plan for the off season.

I've been quite accurate thus far on Soybeans and right now I'm sitting at the top of the trade estimates (which doesn't normally bother me as I've been closer than most of the trade thus far) but I'm guessing this report I could be a bit further off.

I'll be interested in what USDA does with cotton production and harvested area as well. I'm close on production, but because of the way the systems works I'm higher on yields and lower on harvested area.

Corn area harvested   85.370million acres
USDA estimated corn area harvested 87.400

Corn Yield:  140.1 bu/ac
Corn Production:  11,963 million bushels
latest USDA Production: 10,773 million bushels 

Soybean Yield:  37.7 bu/ac
Soybean Production: 2,801 million bushels
latest USDA Production = 2,692

Cotton Yield:  827 lbs/ac
Cotton Production 17.673 million bales 
latest USDA Production = 17.650 million bales

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