The corrected and uncorrected model are now converging (for a full explanation of the difference see previous years posts). I've added a graph on cotton area harvested as well to show the (over) sensitivity of the model to abandonment. Again, the chosen response of the model (read bushel deviations instead of percent deviations) to abiotic stress (read drought) has cause the model to be significantly off this year for corn. If I have time in the off season this year, I'll do a percent deviations model, which has some issues that make it slightly more technically challenging, but I might also try to get the wheat model back up and running considering the interest in all grain markets at the moment.
Soybean conditions improved so I've got just a bit more production. I was very close last week in predicting the USDA but I'm not up a bit and probably in the mid to bottom end of the pre-report trade estimates.
For cotton I lost about another 140,000 bales this week. I was very close to the estimate by USDA and so I'm down just a bit further from there. As you can see, I''m probably too high on yields and perhaps too low on harvesting rates, which gets me back to the USDA estimate. I know yields are too high, but harvested area isn't as certain. This would say there is some additional downside potential for cotton area. I'll have to check in to see what the legends in Texas and Mississippi have to say.
Corn Yield: 140.2 bu/ac
Corn Production: 11,990 million bushels
latest USDA Production: 10,773 million bushels
Soybean Yield: 37.2 bu/ac
Soybean Production: 2,764 million bushels
latest USDA Production = 2,692
Cotton Yield: 832 lbs/ac
Cotton Production 17.452 million bales
latest USDA Production = 17.650 million bales
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