Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Week 3, more declines

Greetings from Rome. It is getting pretty warm here, but still cooler than it is in Champaign IL. More declines this week as the corrected maize yields fall below 160bu/ac pulling production down to 14 billion bushels. The corrected estimates for both maize and soybeans are now down at the bottom end of the trade range I have, but I'm guessing the next round of trade data will move further south as well. For next week, I'll try to do some state by state analysis on where the greatest yield impacts are occurring. A look at the spreadsheet (corrected numbers) shows an Iowa yield at 179.9bu/ac (from  184.6  bu/ac) but Illinois is at 172.2 (from    bu/ac 181.1)  so a bigger decline in that state at 8.9bu/ac in just the last couple of weeks. A similar pattern is holding in Soybeans where Iowa yields have declined by 0.8bu/ac while Illinois have fallen 1.7bu/ac over the same period. Indiana shows a similar (more extreme) decline as Illinois, all roughly consistent with the drought indices I saw last week.  

I will also try to work through the cotton model for next week. and identify the states where I've got the most issues (Texas) and come up with some alternatives as I don't believe what I have even though I expect a bigger cotton crop (at this point) than what he USDA has at 17 million bales. As always, the state by state yield and production estimates are available by emailing me. 

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