Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Vs. The Trade

I've obtained some updated trade estimates, so I thought I would update the graphics before the Thursday release by the USDA.

I'm in the center of the trade for corn for yield and production. I'm in the top half for soybeans, both yield and production and this time the trade appears to have jumped to the other side of me in cotton. Remember, the uncorrected model is if we finish the year with current conditions while the corrected model takes into account that conditions more often decline than they do improve. In really good years, however, conditions don't decline. The blue line (corrected model) would continue to rise if conditions are simply stable. Are we in one of those years? It is hard to say.

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