Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Week 12

I'm running at about 17.7 million bales of cotton production, 8 million of it coming from Texas. In discussion with some folks much more knowledgeable than I that 8 million doesn't seem to bad and might even be a bit low. I think the issue is that the model predicts an 'average' abandonment rate and this tends to be something around 10%. The problem is the 'average' never occurs, it is either 4% or 40% abandonment in Texas but seems to be rarely 'average'.

Just to refresh your memory the uncorrected model shows the yield if we FINISH the year with current conditions. The corrected model tries to adjust for the normal decline in conditions that occurs throughout the growing season and thus represents the best guess for the final yield. I did not adjust the correction values but will probably do so over the next couple of weeks to include the 2009 data which I have done everywhere else.

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