Thursday, October 8, 2009

Pre-report trade estimates

Here are the trade estimates of the UDSA numbers for tomorrow. As you can see I'm way down at the edge of the corn yield estimates. This may be a year when I simply am much farther off from the USDA estimates. I'm right in the thick of it for soybeans, both yield and production. For cotton, I had some early sucess when I first built the model in predicting yields, but since this point, the model has been subject to error, much of it driven by the results in Texas.

However, at this point, the USDA still has historically made big adjustments between the October estimates and the final estimate (see the 2 posts before this one). The November estimates tend to be much closer to the final estimates.

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