Week 14 WITH a June 30 acreage update

Now with acreage change!

I think it is a bit early to speak definitively about any of the results of the condition model. I haven't gone over state by state results in great detail to see if my re-estimated equations (without redoing the uncorrected/corrected model wedge) is having much of an effect on the results this year but I will say that the 'excessive' moisture in the mid-west seems to be reducing conditions (and model yields) in Iowa. With smaller declines across the northern corn belt. Pennsylvania seems to have had a significant decline this week but I've no information as to why.

Alternatively the rains last week in Texas seem to have boosted the estimate of cotton production by 200,000 bales up to 8.2 million bales in the uncorrected model.

I'll try to add a bit more commentary in the coming weeks, I've been spending my time looking at biofuel RIN markets and preparing for the mid-year baseline run for FAPRI.

Week 14 spreadsheet with acreage change

Update with new acre numbers.

Week14 (NO ACREGE ADJUSTMENT)

I'm using the same acreage with no adjustment from last weeks report.


I think it is a bit early to speak definitively about any of the results of the condition model. I haven't gone over state by state results in great detail to see if my re-estimated equations (without redoing the uncorrected/corrected model wedge) is having much of an effect on the results this year but I will say that the 'excessive' moisture in the mid-west seems to be reducing conditions (and model yields) in Iowa. With smaller declines across the northern corn belt. Pennsylvania seems to have had a significant decline this week but I've no information as to why.

Alternatively the rains last week in Texas seem to have boosted the estimate of cotton production by 200,000 bales up to 8.2 million bales in the uncorrected model.

I'll try to add a bit more commentary in the coming weeks, I've been spending my time looking at biofuel RIN markets and preparing for the mid-year baseline run for FAPRI.

Week 14 spreadsheet

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Week 13

Week 13 Spreadsheet

Week 12

I'm running at about 17.7 million bales of cotton production, 8 million of it coming from Texas. In discussion with some folks much more knowledgeable than I that 8 million doesn't seem to bad and might even be a bit low. I think the issue is that the model predicts an 'average' abandonment rate and this tends to be something around 10%. The problem is the 'average' never occurs, it is either 4% or 40% abandonment in Texas but seems to be rarely 'average'.

Just to refresh your memory the uncorrected model shows the yield if we FINISH the year with current conditions. The corrected model tries to adjust for the normal decline in conditions that occurs throughout the growing season and thus represents the best guess for the final yield. I did not adjust the correction values but will probably do so over the next couple of weeks to include the 2009 data which I have done everywhere else.

Week 12 Spreadsheet (3mb)

The blog made it to DTN

Link to DTN article on crop progress and condition reports.

I said quite a bit more, of course, about the value of these reports. Just because data is subjective doesn't mean it doesn't have value or that you can't use it to estimate a number. I think people have used very simple techniques in the past, I'm doing something just a bit more precise and yes it isn't perfect but I'd put my record the last several years up against many of the industry folks.

I'll be re-estimating the model including last years data shortly and I should start with the yield and cropsize predictions starting the begining of June.

-Seth

Last estimates for the year.

I finished quite far away for corn, closer for beans and cotton. When I look back at what pushed me away from the USDA's final estimates for corn I see Illinois and Indiana yields. As I indicated in several earlier posts, I use planting progress as a 'terminal' yield limiter. The crop in Illinois and Indiana in my trigger week was significantly behind. This would normally put a critical period of crop development during what is normally a hot and dry part of the year. However, along with this late crop planting progress came a wet and cool year in those states as well. The slow planting progress was far to limiting a factor on yields is my conclusion.